MAY 5 | Domestic box-office receipts through April were up 4% over 2005, according to Variety, and just a hair ahead of grosses for the same four months in 2002, the year that set the all-time annual domestic box-office record at $9.3 billion.
In Hollywood, box-office performance is a constant source of conversation. The riff that has had the longest legs recently is something along the lines of “box-office: what’s wrong with it?” Is it the high prices? Bad movies? Bad theater experiences? Shorter windows between theatrical and DVD? The growth of home theaters?
Now, however, some buzz is shifting, lifting, even lilting in tone: With such a strong start to the year and Mission: Impossible III on more than 4,000 screens, is it possible—just possible—that 2006 could surpass 2002, the year of Spider-Man and My Big Fat Greek Wedding, and set a new record?
Home entertainment retailers, no matter how far they may be physically from Hollywood, are vested in the conversation by virtue of the fact that their financial fate is connected almost as much as that of theater owners to box office performance.
National Assn. of Theatre Owners president John Fithian told exhibs at ShowCanada recently to prepare for a record May delivered by M:I III, Poseidon, Over the Hedge, and The DaVinci Code. (Thanks to the Vatican for all the publicity, Sony will take it to the bank.)
Those will be followed in short order by X-Men: The Last Stand, Cars, Superman Returns and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dean Man’s Chest.
Conventional wisdom holds that these films are strong enough that, coupled with a breakout hit or two, they could lift summer over 2002. It’s a tougher call to forecast the entire year, however, because the fall schedule looks relatively weak at this point, with James Bond pic Casino Royale the only major franchise slated.
Nevertheless, a boffo summer could prove, much to Hollywood’s relief, that consumers are, in fact, drawn by appealing content and not just disenchanted with going to the movies.
As important as content is, however, it’s only part of the answer to the “what’s wrong with the box-office?” question. Just like the lack of a title as strong as The Incredibles is only part of the reason first quarter 2006 DVD sales fell from 2005 levels.
Both DVD sales and moviegoing have plateaued. In order to guard as much as possible against the next “cyclical” downturn in movie quality, both theater owners and home entertainment retailers need to focus on the experience and value they are providing consumers. (Sorry, Mr. Fithian, but I just don’t buy the argument that movie tickets are affordable compared to a professional ball game or amusement park!)
The home entertainment experience is on the upswing with more delivery and pricing options than ever for movies and advanced home theater components at increasingly affordable prices.
Experiments such as AMC Theatres’ move to show a broader range of independent films in 72 AMC Select venues will do double duty—doing more to bring in audiences beyond teenage boys and building demand for these specialty films when they are eventually released on DVD.
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